Rose Canyon Fault Earthquake Predictions

March 16, 2020
Updated: August 05, 2020

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM AN EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE ROSE CANYON FAULT

Sunny San Diego, California’s oldest city and second largest population center with 3.3 million residents, holds a great risk of serious earthquake damage. While no one can provide a date-certain San Diego earthquake prediction, scientists estimate that there is a 99% probability of a major earthquake in the near future. It is a case of when, not if, the next major earthquake hits the region.

The boundary between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates runs to the east of San Diego County from the Gulf of California up through the Salton Sea and into the Los Angeles region. The San Andreas network of faults can cause powerful earthquakes—as big as magnitude 8—that can generate strong shaking levels in San Diego. Beyond this network, San Diego is home to two active earthquake faults:

• The Rose Canyon fault, an extension of the Los Angeles Newport-Inglewood fault, runs along the coast and beneath downtown San Diego. In a recent report, earthquake geologists and engineers say this fault is the biggest earthquake threat to San Diego, capable of earthquakes of magnitude 6.9. 
• The Elsinore and San Jacinto faults cut through East County and can also generate moderately-sized but potentially damaging earthquakes. 

THE ROSE CANYON EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO

A Rose Canyon earthquake could bring devastation to San Diego and its Mexican sister cities. The Rose Canyon Fault is a right-lateral, strike-slip fault running in a north-south direction through the county of San Diego resting beneath the heart of San Diego.

Watch this USGS San Diego Earthquake Scenario video to see how the earth would move.

The San Diego-Tijuana cross border community is home to more than 5 million people with shared infrastructures and economies. The region’s large population and poor seismic resistance of its older buildings and infrastructure systems make San Diego communities vulnerable to earthquakes.

• 45% of residential building would be damaged.
• 23,000 residential units would suffer severe or completed damage.
• 36,000 households would be displaced.

Rose Canyon Fault Line Map

Selected residential-impact findings from the San Diego Rose Canyon Earthquake Planning Scenario 

A hypothetical magnitude 6.9 earthquake within the Rose Canyon Fault Zone.

• 45% Estimated percentage of residential buildings in the scenario area that would be damaged.
• 23,000 Estimated number of residential units in the scenario area that would suffer extensive or complete damage.
• 36,000 Estimated number of households in the scenario area that would be displaced.
• Repair costs could be high Construction costs in San Diego are higher than the national average.
• “Older highly vulnerable structure types will be hardest hit” With extensive damage, building losses and many possible casualties.

PREDICTED EFFECTS & IMPACT OF A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE ALONG THE ROSE CANYON FAULT

Life as we know it in San Diego would be disrupted after a major earthquake on the Rose Canyon Fault zone. The recent EERI San Diego Earthquake Scenario study estimated that the region would experience $5.2 billion lost income, and 36,000 households would be displaced. The earthquake would ruin San Diego’s aging apartments and houses, adding to the crisis in affordable housing. Water, sewer lines and gas line services could be out for months. The I-5 transportation corridor as well as airport and rail services would be seriously affected by the rupture. Other impacts include:

• Widespread liquefaction along Mission Bay, Mission Valley, the San Diego International Airport, Coronado island and the South Bay cities of Chula Vista, National City and Imperial Beach.
• Liquefaction on the nation’s fourth biggest Department of Defense facilities, home to three nuclear aircraft carriers.
• Earthquake-triggered landslides on the hills of San Diego would affect Mount Soledad, Point Loma, Mission Valley, and Sorrento Valley.

IS YOUR HOUSE NEAR THE ROSE CANYON FAULT?

The Rose Canyon fault in San Diego starts near Mission Valley and heads north toward La Jolla where it joins other faults. Most Californians live near an active earthquake fault.